Banner

Box Production Calculation

Wrapping up this section on scarcity, the chart below shows the estimated number of boxes for each of the products in the 1962 Post cereal promotion. The Post salesman's brochure titled Touchdown! announced that 500 million football cards would be produced on the backs of boxes. By taking the percentage of cards from each product and factoring in the number of cards on each cereal's panel, an estimate of how many boxes of each brand and size can be made.

There is an interesting thing about Post's production that should be brought up. Former Post employee and long-time collector Bill Rothney wrote in a 1984 letter to Kirk Robinson how some of the box production numbers came to be. Explaining the numbers for production runs, Bill wrote "...there are several variables which could affect the scarcity of an individual card in the set...The portion of the annual volume which was run with the promotion. Marketing personnel don't change the promotions on all of the cereals at the same time. Thus, anywhere from 10% to 35% of the annual volume could have been with the football set." This would help explain, among other things, why 1962 Oat Flakes 10 oz. baseball cards are not much of a scarcity issue but are tremendously so for the football promotion.

From the raw card data it is apparent that Grape Nuts 11 oz. box production needs a downward adjustment due to the fact that having Sam and Dave Baker on the same panel drives the card numbers for that panel inordinately higher than the other panel. The rest of the products are presented using their original percentages. The double printed boxes production totals are combined in the chart.

These numbers are "just-for-fun" extrapolations and shouldn't be taken as actual 1962 Post football promotion production totals. The column titled "Box count by brand" is not only that but also would be the same number of individual cards produced for any particular player.

1962 Post Cereal Football Promotion Estimated Box Production
Product Count Cards/Box Pct Total Total cards by brand Box count by brand Individual box count
GN11 24 2 0.25% 1,254,574 313,643 627,287
OF10 195 5 2.04% 10,193,413 509,671 2,548,353
BF11 297 6 3.11% 15,525,353 646,890 3,881,338
RB10 207 4 2.16% 10,820,700 676,294 2,705,175
PT8 222 5 2.32% 11,604,809 773,654 3,868,270
P10 360 3 3.76% 18,818,610 896,124 2,688,373
AB¾ 103 1 1.08% 5,384,213 897,369 897,369
SCCF10 502 7 5.25% 26,241,505 937,197 6,560,376
GNF16 543 7 5.68% 28,384,736 1,013,741 7,096,184
GN16 186 3 1.94% 9,722,948 1,080,328 3,240,983
RK10 542 4 5.67% 28,332,462 1,180,519 4,722,077
BF16 647 7 6.76% 33,821,223 1,207,901 8,455,306
AB13/CC13 664 7 6.94% 34,709,880 1,239,639 8,677,470
GNF12/T310 868 6 9.07% 45,373,758 1,260,382 7,562,293
RB14 484 5 5.06% 25,300,575 1,265,029 6,325,144
PT12S/PT12T 769 7 8.04% 40,198,641 1,435,666 10,049,660
SC14 675 7 7.06% 35,284,893 1,680,233 11,761,631
AB8/CC8 894 6 9.35% 46,732,880 1,947,203 11,683,220
SC9 697 6 7.29% 36,434,919 2,024,162 12,144,973
PT18 686 7 7.17% 35,859,906 2,561,422 17,929,953
Totals 9565 100.00% 500,000,000 23,547,065 133,425,435